The Calgary Flames are hanging on in the NHL playoff odds picture: at 6-7 through 13 games, they have a 37.1% chance to reach the postseason and a 30–40% public odds band. Friday’s 6-2 win over the Seattle Kraken was a welcome result, but one win does not erase the gap between Calgary’s projected 87 points and the teams currently rated more favorably.
For Flames fans, 37.1% is a real route to the playoffs, not a forecast that Calgary is likely to get there. The team is still early in an 84-game season, so the odds are volatile; the current record is a small sample, not a settled verdict. Still, the model’s projection places Calgary below several teams clustered around the same standings neighborhood.
Calgary’s 87-point projection trails nearby playoff cases
The Los Angeles Kings are 4-8 but carry a 40–50% playoff band and a 91-point projection. That contrast shows how much the current record alone can mislead this early: Los Angeles has fewer wins than Calgary, yet its projected finish is four points higher and its odds band one tier above.
The St. Louis Blues offer a tougher comparison. At 6-7, they share Calgary’s record, but their 50–60% playoff band and 93-point projection put them six points ahead. The Toronto Maple Leafs, meanwhile, are 7-8 with a 30–40% band and 92 projected points. Calgary’s odds band matches Toronto’s, but its projected total is five points lower.
Those are meaningful gaps, not insurmountable ones. The projections suggest Calgary needs to convert its season into a higher points pace, while the early schedule leaves room for the standings picture to change.
The Seattle win is a useful sign, not a trend
Calgary’s latest result did carry substance: the Flames beat Seattle 6-2 on Oct. 30, after losing their first two meetings with the Kraken this season, and earned a fifth straight home win. Matt Coronato had a goal and three assists in the game, according to the NHL recap. The win shows Calgary can take advantage of a home matchup; it does not yet establish that the team can sustain the pace needed to close its projected-points gap.
For a playoff push, Calgary needs more results that lift its season-long point projection, not just a strong night at home. A prolonged stretch near its current 6-7 pace would leave the Flames reliant on the teams ahead of them falling back. Conversely, a consistent run of wins would give the model more evidence to raise an outlook currently set well below even odds.
Calgary Flames verdict: an uphill case, with time to change it
The evidence points to a team that is still in contention but not yet on a playoff track: 37.1% odds, an 87-point projection and a record below .500. Calgary’s 6-2 win over Seattle makes the immediate picture brighter, but the best-supported verdict is that the Flames will miss unless they turn isolated wins into a sustained improvement in their projected finish.
Research sources
Additional reporting checked 2026-10-31T14:01:29.152Z.
