NHL Playoff Odds
30,000 Monte Carlo simulations, updated after every game. Track every team's path to the Stanley Cup.
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How are NHL playoff odds calculated?
Clinch runs 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining NHL season. Each simulation plays out every remaining game using team strength ratings, schedule difficulty, and home advantage. The playoff odds percentage reflects how many of those 30,000 simulated seasons each team made the playoffs.
How often are NHL playoff odds updated?
Odds are re-simulated within minutes of every game finishing. A full 30,000-simulation run is triggered after each completed game, plus a scheduled daily run for overnight stat corrections. This means the odds typically reflect the latest results within 5-10 minutes.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical technique that uses randomness to model uncertain outcomes. By simulating the rest of the season thousands of times with realistic game-by-game variance, we can estimate the probability of each possible outcome — including which teams make the playoffs, win their division, or win the Stanley Cup.
How many teams make the NHL playoffs?
16 teams make the NHL playoffs — the top 3 in each division plus 2 wild cards per conference.
What factors affect a team's playoff odds?
The main factors are current win-loss record, remaining schedule difficulty (strength of schedule), goal/point differential, head-to-head tiebreakers, and how many games are left in the season. Early in the season, odds are more volatile because there are more games left to play.
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