The Toronto Maple Leafs are hanging on, not separating: at 8-9 through 17 games, they sit in the 30–40% playoff band, with a 92-point projection. In the early NHL playoff odds picture, that is a warning light rather than a verdict. Toronto has time to recover, but its current projection puts it behind several nearby competitors.
Toronto’s 92-point outlook is a narrow foothold
A 30–40% chance means the model sees Toronto missing the playoffs more often than making them. The 92-point projection reinforces that caution: it is one point below the New York Islanders and Ottawa Senators, and only one above the Buffalo Sabres. Those small gaps leave little room for a prolonged slump, even as early-season projections remain volatile.
There is also a notable gap between the standings snapshot and Toronto’s division outlook. The Leafs’ division-win probability is 2.9%, so their more plausible route is to stay in the wider playoff conversation rather than take control of the division. Their 8-9 start has not made that route impossible, but it has left them needing to gain ground.
Islanders and Senators have the edge; Buffalo is close behind
The New York Islanders are 7-7 with a 40–50% playoff band and a 94-point projection. Their record is close to Toronto’s, but the model gives them a higher outlook. The Ottawa Senators have a stronger 10-7 start and the same 40–50% band, also projecting to 94 points. Those are the clearest nearby benchmarks for the Leafs: Toronto needs to turn games into wins to close a two-point projected gap.
The Buffalo Sabres are 7-8, projected for 91 points, and sit in Toronto’s 30–40% band. That makes Buffalo a useful measure of the danger below as well as a competitor for position. Toronto currently projects only one point ahead; neither team has built separation.
Special teams and timely scoring are the tests
Toronto’s recent 3-2 loss to Utah came with a power-play goal allowed for the fifth straight game; the Leafs also conceded multiple power-play goals for the first time this season, according to the team’s recap. The recap also reported Toronto was 3-6-0 when opponents scored first. Those are specific areas to improve, not proof of where the season is headed.
There are signs of offense to build on: Jack Roslovic had a seven-game point streak, while Auston Matthews had points in five straight, the recap noted. If that production continues and Toronto limits opponents’ power-play chances, the Leafs have a plausible way to improve on 92 projected points. If the penalty-kill trouble persists and they keep giving up first goals, the Islanders and Senators have more room to pull away.
Toronto Maple Leafs verdict: more likely out than in
The early record and 30–40% band point to a miss for now, not a confident playoff call. Toronto’s projection is close enough to the teams around it that better special-teams results could change the picture, but until the Leafs turn that possibility into a better record, the evidence favors them finishing short.
Research sources
Additional reporting checked 2026-11-05T14:04:08.616Z.
