Public model scoreboard
Our MLB model tracks the sportsbook market within 4.30 percentage points across 1,456 bookmaker-game comparisons.
We archive pregame win forecasts and sportsbook moneylines, then score both after each final. Each bookmaker's result uses the games where its archived line overlaps our forecast.
The scoreboard
Every number below comes from archived pregame forecasts scored against resolved outcomes. No cherry-picked windows — the lifetime pregame-v3 sample is what you see.
Lifetime pregame-v3 sample: 479 completed games.
Head-to-head vs the sportsbooks
Where archived pregame moneylines overlap a Clinch game-win forecast, both probabilities are scored against the same final. Each bookmaker has its own matched sample; collection dates and coverage differ.
MLB
| Bookmaker | Since | Games | Clinch Brier | Book Brier | Clinch pick % | Book pick % | Avg gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Aug 18, 2026 | 455 | 0.2343 | 0.2307 | 59.2% | 61.0% | 4.18pp | Book better |
| FanDuel | Aug 26, 2026 | 335 | 0.2344 | 0.2319 | 58.4% | 59.4% | 4.28pp | Book better |
| BetMGM | Aug 26, 2026 | 335 | 0.2342 | 0.2307 | 58.7% | 60.3% | 4.45pp | Book better |
| Pinnacle | Aug 26, 2026 | 331 | 0.2346 | 0.2337 | 58.8% | 59.4% | 4.30pp | Book better |
Sportsbooks are a demanding benchmark because their lines react to market activity. Read the comparison method at /vs-sportsbooks.
Public odds services
FanGraphs and MoneyPuck don't publish game-by-game moneylines; they publish season-long playoff probabilities. That's the same problem Clinch is solving, so it's the fairer apples-to-apples comparison for our headline product.
Season track record
Model version stays fixed across each row. If we ship a v4 that's better than v3, we won't retroactively rewrite these rows — we'll start a new row.
A multi-season record appears after a second completed season scores under the same model version.
Technical scorecards paired-season scorecard, per-model Brier, title-odds gaps
Paired season scorecard
Same season, same cutoff, both sides — the strictest apples-to-apples test.
No completed paired season yet. MLB 2026 is being captured now and becomes scoreable only after the season ends.
Per-model Brier comparison
Archived model versions with their completed-game counts and Brier scores. Each version may cover a different set of games.
Where title odds differ most
Difference is a disagreement measure, not an accuracy score. Reference values pulled from FanGraphs Playoff Odds.
| Sport | Team | Clinch | FanGraphs Playoff Odds | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | LAD | 20.8% | 29.6% | 8.8pp |
| MLB | MIL | 17.9% | 11.2% | 6.7pp |
| MLB | TB | 13.7% | 9.2% | 4.5pp |
| MLB | BOS | 4.6% | 8.5% | 3.9pp |
| MLB | NYY | 10.1% | 7.1% | 3.0pp |
Where title odds match closest
The teams where our model and the reference agree the most — worth flagging both because it's honest.
| Sport | Team | Clinch | FanGraphs Playoff Odds | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | CHC | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0pp |
| MLB | PHI | 4.0% | 4.6% | 0.6pp |
| MLB | SD | 3.1% | 3.7% | 0.6pp |
| MLB | HOU | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.1pp |
| MLB | CHW | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8pp |
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