Public model scoreboard

Our MLB model tracks the sportsbook market within 4.20 percentage points across 1,855 bookmaker-game comparisons.

Name: Clinch Public Model Scoreboard
Creator: Clinch

We archive pregame win forecasts and sportsbook moneylines, then score both after each final. Each bookmaker's result uses the games where its archived line overlaps our forecast.

The scoreboard

Every number below comes from archived pregame forecasts scored against resolved outcomes. No cherry-picked windows — the lifetime pregame-v3 sample is what you see.

543MLB games evaluated

4Bookmakers tracked head-to-head

1,855Total matched samples

PublicEvery score verifiable below

MLB pregame Brier

0.2379

4.9% better than the 0.2500 base-rate benchmark. Lower is better.
Lifetime pregame-v3 sample: 543 completed games.

MLB playoff-odds gap vs public odds

—

Mean absolute difference on playoff probabilities across all — MLB teams. Lower = closer alignment.

Bookmaker head-to-head

0/4

Books where Clinch posted a lower Brier score on the matched-game sample. Pick-rate lead: 1 of 4 books. Per-book scorecards below.

Matched samples

1,855

Sum of per-book MLB game samples. One game can count once for each bookmaker with an archived line. Bigger sample = more reliable comparison.

Head-to-head vs the sportsbooks

Where archived pregame moneylines overlap a Clinch game-win forecast, both probabilities are scored against the same final. Each bookmaker has its own matched sample; collection dates and coverage differ.

MLB

Bookmaker	Since	Games	Clinch Brier	Book Brier	Clinch pick %	Book pick %	Avg gap	Result
DraftKings	Aug 19, 2026	545	0.2369	0.2326	59.4%	60.2%	4.11pp	Book better
FanDuel	Aug 26, 2026	439	0.2363	0.2330	59.5%	59.9%	4.17pp	Book better
BetMGM	Aug 26, 2026	439	0.2361	0.2322	59.7%	60.5%	4.29pp	Book better
Pinnacle	Aug 26, 2026	432	0.2363	0.2348	59.5%	59.0%	4.21pp	Book better

NHL

Bookmaker	Since	Games	Clinch Brier	Book Brier	Clinch pick %	Book pick %	Avg gap	Result
DraftKings	Oct 20, 2026	136	0.2328	0.2256	59.6%	59.6%	3.77pp	Book better
Pinnacle	Oct 20, 2026	136	0.2328	0.2258	59.6%	61.0%	4.04pp	Book better
FanDuel	Oct 20, 2026	136	0.2328	0.2264	59.6%	61.8%	3.82pp	Book better
BetMGM	Oct 20, 2026	125	0.2311	0.2247	60.0%	60.8%	3.84pp	Book better

NBA

Bookmaker	Since	Games	Clinch Brier	Book Brier	Clinch pick %	Book pick %	Avg gap	Result
DraftKings	Oct 26, 2026	96	0.2144	0.1847	65.1%	76.0%	9.83pp	Book better
FanDuel	Oct 26, 2026	96	0.2144	0.1868	65.1%	73.4%	9.68pp	Book better
BetMGM	Oct 26, 2026	96	0.2144	0.1864	65.1%	72.9%	10.01pp	Book better
Pinnacle	Oct 26, 2026	96	0.2144	0.1867	65.1%	74.0%	10.08pp	Book better

Sportsbooks are a demanding benchmark because their lines react to market activity. Read the comparison method at /vs-sportsbooks.

Public odds services

FanGraphs, MoneyPuck and Kalshi's season markets don't cover single games; they give season-long playoff probabilities. That's the same problem Clinch is solving, so it's the fairer apples-to-apples comparison for our headline product.

Public-odds comparisons appear as matched snapshots land.

Season track record

Model version stays fixed across each row. If we ship a v4 that's better than v3, we won't retroactively rewrite these rows — we'll start a new row.

Multi-season record

MLB Lifetime record 2025–2026 · 2 seasons / 60 team forecasts · legacy / unversioned

0.2400Base-rate Brier

0.1308Model Brier

Archived per-season snapshots

MLB 2025 season 30 teams · cutoff 2025-06-30 — exactly 90 days before the 2025-09-28 regular-season end · legacy / unversioned; legacy captured history

0.2400Base-rate Brier

0.1584Model Brier

NBA 20252026 season 30 teams · cutoff 2026-01-12 — exactly 90 days before the 2026-04-12 regular-season end · legacy / unversioned; legacy captured history

0.2489Base-rate Brier

0.0605Model Brier

NHL 20252026 season 32 teams · cutoff 2026-01-16 — exactly 90 days before the 2026-04-16 regular-season end · legacy / unversioned; legacy captured history

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.1672Model Brier

MLB 2026 season 30 teams · cutoff 2026-06-29 — exactly 90 days before the 2026-09-27 regular-season end · legacy / unversioned; legacy captured history

0.2400Base-rate Brier

0.1032Model Brier

Technical scorecards paired-season scorecard, per-model Brier, title-odds gaps

Paired season scorecard

Same season, same cutoff, both sides — the strictest apples-to-apples test.

No completed paired season yet. NHL 20262027, NBA 20262027, NHL 20262027, NBA 20262027 is being captured now and becomes scoreable only after the season ends.

Per-model Brier comparison

Archived model versions with their completed-game counts and Brier scores. Each version may cover a different set of games.

MLB mlb-pregame-v3 current 574 completed games / 1148 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2388Model Brier

MLB mc-v1 484 completed games / 968 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2441Model Brier

MLB mlb-pregame-v2 200 completed games / 400 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2455Model Brier

NBA nba-pregame-v4 123 completed games / 246 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2428Model Brier

NBA nba-pregame-v5 96 completed games / 192 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2144Model Brier

NHL nhl-pregame-v3 current 216 completed games / 432 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2411Model Brier

NHL nhl-pregame-v4 136 completed games / 272 team forecasts

0.2500Base-rate Brier

0.2328Model Brier

Where title odds differ most

Difference is a disagreement measure, not an accuracy score. Reference values pulled from Public odds.

Sport	Team	Clinch	Public odds	Gap
No live title-odds comparison available.

Where title odds match closest

The teams where our model and the reference agree the most — worth flagging both because it's honest.

Sport	Team	Clinch	Public odds	Gap
No overlapping non-trivial contenders yet.

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