MLB Playoff Odds 2026 — Every Team's Live Chances
· MLB · 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Live baseball playoff odds for every MLB team, updated within minutes of every final score. 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations track each team's path to the World Series.
Looking for a modern replacement for the FiveThirtyEight MLB playoff odds, Baseball Reference postseason odds, or Baseball Prospectus PECOTA? Clinch runs the same style of full-season Monte Carlo simulation and refreshes within minutes of every completed game — plus a nightly rooting guide none of them ship. See the full comparison →
Tonight's rooting guide + push alerts when MLB odds shift — free in the appSee How Tonight Changes Your Team's MLB Odds
Live updates after every game, rooting guides for games you're not watching, and push alerts when your team's odds shift. Follow one team in every sport for free.
- Live playoff odds after every final score
- Tonight's rooting guide for your team
- One team in every sport is free on iPhone and Android
Get live MLB odds on your phone
Text or copy the link to yourself — installs directly to the App Store or Google Play, no account needed.
Start with the team you actually care about
Start with the exact team race you care about. Each team page answers the questions fans search for most: playoff odds today, title chances, and what to watch tonight.
Will Atlanta Braves make the playoffs?
Atlanta Braves and every other team page updates within minutes of each final score, so you can see the race move without waiting for a recap article.
What games matter tonight?
Clinch is built for that question. Follow a team in the app and get nightly rooting guides, impact scores, and alerts when another result helps or hurts your odds.
Why open the app instead of just reading odds once?
Because the value is not just the percentage. It is knowing what changed, what happens next, and which other games you should care about before the race moves again.
Atlanta Braves
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Boston Red Sox
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Chicago Cubs
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Chicago White Sox
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Contenders
Longshots
Get live odds, game impact breakdowns, and alerts when your team's chances change
All Teams by Division
Latest MLB Articles
Sep 27, 2026 Milwaukee and Los Angeles Pull Away While the Wild Card Lines Harden Sep 27, 2026 Dodgers Hold the Line, Rangers Stay Alive as the Final MLB Day Takes Shape Sep 27, 2026 Philadelphia’s Playoff Hold Is Real, But Houston Is Breathing Down Its Neck Sep 25, 2026 Milwaukee Ends Philadelphia’s Cushion, While Houston and Texas Keep Their Wild-Card Fight Alive Sep 25, 2026 Texas Rangers Are Hanging on at , but Houston Still Holds the Hand on the Door Sep 23, 2026 Dodgers Blank Padres, but Houston's Shutout Win Keeps the Wild Card Fight Alive Sep 23, 2026 Texas Is Hanging On at — and the Houston Race Is the Whole Season Sep 21, 2026 Milwaukee Keeps Rolling as Texas Falls Back Into the Bubble Sep 21, 2026 Houston Is Stuck in the Middle: Is Real, but Not Safe Sep 19, 2026 Brewers Keep Rolling as Cubs, Astros, and Rangers Slip in the Final Week View all articles →Frequently Asked Questions
How are MLB playoff odds calculated?
Clinch runs 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining MLB season. Each simulation plays out every remaining game using team strength ratings, schedule difficulty, and home advantage. The playoff odds percentage reflects how many of those 30,000 simulated seasons each team made the playoffs.
How often are MLB playoff odds updated?
30,000 simulations run after every final score. Odds typically update within 5-10 minutes. A scheduled daily run also catches overnight stat corrections and data refreshes.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical technique that uses randomness to model uncertain outcomes. By simulating the rest of the season thousands of times with realistic game-by-game variance, we can estimate the probability of each possible outcome — including which teams make the playoffs, win their division, or win the World Series.
How many teams make the MLB playoffs?
12 teams make the MLB playoffs — 3 division winners and 3 wild card teams per league (American and National).
What factors affect a team's playoff odds?
The main factors are current record, run differential and Pythagorean win expectancy, Statcast quality metrics, remaining schedule strength, standings and tiebreakers, and games remaining. Early-season odds are more volatile because more of the schedule remains.
Never Miss a MLB Playoff Race Shift
Your team's odds update within minutes of every game. Get a nightly rooting guide, plain-English explanations of what changed, and push notifications when it matters. iOS and Android.
- Follow MLB team pages and live odds in one app
- Push alerts when the race changes
- One team in every sport is free on iPhone and Android