Baseball Playoff Odds 2026 — Every MLB Team's Live Chances
· MLB · 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Live baseball playoff odds for every MLB team, updated within minutes of every final score. 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations track each team's path to the World Series.
Looking for a modern replacement for the FiveThirtyEight MLB playoff odds, Baseball Reference postseason odds, or Baseball Prospectus PECOTA? Clinch runs the same style of full-season Monte Carlo simulation and refreshes within minutes of every completed game — plus a nightly rooting guide none of them ship. See the full comparison →
Get live MLB odds + tonight's rooting guide — free in the appSee How Tonight Changes Your Team's MLB Odds
Live updates after every game, rooting guides for games you're not watching, and push alerts when your team's odds shift. Follow one team in every sport for free.
- Live playoff odds after every final score
- Tonight's rooting guide for your team
- One team in every sport is free on iPhone and Android
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Text or copy the link to yourself — installs directly to the App Store or Google Play, no account needed.
Start with the team you actually care about
Start with the exact team race you care about. Each team page answers the questions fans search for most: playoff odds today, title chances, and what to watch tonight.
Will Houston Astros make the playoffs?
Houston Astros and every other team page updates within minutes of each final score, so you can see the race move without waiting for a recap article.
What games matter tonight?
Clinch is built for that question. Follow a team in the app and get nightly rooting guides, impact scores, and alerts when another result helps or hurts your odds.
Why open the app instead of just reading odds once?
Because the value is not just the percentage. It is knowing what changed, what happens next, and which other games you should care about before the race moves again.
Houston Astros
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Chicago White Sox
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
San Diego Padres
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Philadelphia Phillies
Open the direct team routes fans search for after checking the league race.
Contenders
Bubble Teams
Longshots
Get live odds, game impact breakdowns, and alerts when your team's chances change
All Teams by Division
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How are MLB playoff odds calculated?
Clinch runs 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining MLB season. Each simulation plays out every remaining game using team strength ratings, schedule difficulty, and home advantage. The playoff odds percentage reflects how many of those 30,000 simulated seasons each team made the playoffs.
How often are MLB playoff odds updated?
30,000 simulations run after every final score. Odds typically update within 5-10 minutes. A scheduled daily run also catches overnight stat corrections and data refreshes.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation is a statistical technique that uses randomness to model uncertain outcomes. By simulating the rest of the season thousands of times with realistic game-by-game variance, we can estimate the probability of each possible outcome — including which teams make the playoffs, win their division, or win the World Series.
How many teams make the MLB playoffs?
12 teams make the MLB playoffs — 3 division winners and 3 wild card teams per league (American and National).
What factors affect a team's playoff odds?
The main factors are current win-loss record, remaining schedule difficulty (strength of schedule), goal/point differential, head-to-head tiebreakers, and how many games are left in the season. Early in the season, odds are more volatile because there are more games left to play.
Never Miss a MLB Playoff Race Shift
Your team's odds update within minutes of every game. Get a nightly rooting guide, plain-English explanations of what changed, and push notifications when it matters. iOS and Android.
- Follow MLB team pages and live odds in one app
- Push alerts when the race changes
- One team in every sport is free on iPhone and Android