Houston Astros
West Division
Playoff Probability
Outside Looking In
30,000 Monte Carlo simulations, updated within minutes of every game
Latest Analysis
From: St. Louis Cardinals Are Alive, But 35.4% Says the Margin Is Thin — Jun 29, 2026 →Just ahead, the Houston Astros are at 41.5% with a 42-44 record, while San Diego Padres sit at 38.2% after 43-39. The Miami Marlins are also close at 37.5% and 44-40. That leaves St. Louis in a narrow band where one hot week can change the picture, but one bad stretch can bury it.
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