Bookmaker
Within margin
DraftKings
Clinch Brier
0.2343
DraftKings Brier
0.2307
1.6% higher than book
Model proof for sports fans
Clinch and Pinnacle are nearly even on 331 matched MLB games.
Clinch scored 0.2346 Brier vs 0.2337 for Pinnacle and picked the winner 58.8% vs 59.4% of the time. Lower Brier is better; every bookmaker result is shown below.
Clinch puts those forecasts to work for fans: live playoff odds, a guide to tonight's games, and alerts when your team's race moves.
Follow one team in each sport for free. No credit card.
Matched MLB games
331
Clinch and Pinnacle scored on the same game outcomes.
Clinch Brier score
0.2346
Pinnacle: 0.2337. Lower is better for probability forecasts.
Clinch pick accuracy
58.8%
Clinch correct on 389 of 662 team forecasts · Pinnacle 59.4%.
What this means for your team: the sportsbook comparison checks Clinch's single-game win forecasts. The app turns its forecasts into live playoff odds and a rooting guide after games finish. Season playoff probabilities have their own scorecards on the model dashboard.
Every bookmaker, same scoring rule
Each row uses current-season games where that bookmaker and Clinch both have archived forecasts. Lower Brier and higher pick accuracy are better; green marks a Clinch edge. Historical results remain on the model dashboard.
MLB
Full matched-game table (raw Brier + pick rate)
| Bookmaker | Since | Games | Clinch Brier | Book Brier | Clinch picks | Book picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Aug 18, 2026 | 455 | 0.2343 | 0.2307 | 59.2% | 61.0% |
| FanDuel | Aug 26, 2026 | 335 | 0.2344 | 0.2319 | 58.4% | 59.4% |
| BetMGM | Aug 26, 2026 | 335 | 0.2342 | 0.2307 | 58.7% | 60.3% |
| Pinnacle | Aug 26, 2026 | 331 | 0.2346 | 0.2337 | 58.8% | 59.4% |
Five games where Clinch had the edge
Selected examples: the five largest game-level Brier improvements over an available sportsbook where Clinch picked the winner and gave it a higher chance. We show one book per game. The complete matched-game results are in the table above.
| Date | Result | Bookmaker | Clinch winner chance | Book winner chance | Clinch Brier | Book Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | ATL over HOU | DraftKings | 56.4% | 41.8% | 0.1901 | 0.3386 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | NYY over SD | Pinnacle | 56.0% | 45.7% | 0.1936 | 0.2953 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | CHW over CLE | Pinnacle | 50.2% | 41.3% | 0.2480 | 0.3443 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ATL over HOU | Pinnacle | 54.2% | 44.8% | 0.2098 | 0.3050 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | BAL over COL | FanDuel | 66.1% | 54.6% | 0.1149 | 0.2058 |
Brier scores average both teams' forecasts for each completed game. Lower is better. Examples are selected for display and do not describe Clinch's overall record.
Sample sizes differ with each bookmaker's collection dates and available lines. Active sports appear as matched games finish; offseason and preseason sports return when their next regular season has scored results.
How we checked the comparison
We pair Clinch's archived pregame win forecast with available bookmaker moneylines for the same team and date, then score both against the final result. Each bookmaker has its own matched sample. Available line snapshots are averaged, and snapshot times can differ.
Brier score measures the squared gap between a predicted probability and what happened; lower is better. The selected game examples use the same forecasts and odds as the complete per-book results above. The model dashboard has deeper scorecards and season-odds validation.
FAQ
How does Clinch compare to sportsbook odds?
The active sports have 1,456 bookmaker-game comparisons in total. Each bookmaker has its own matched-game sample in the tables above.
Which sportsbooks does Clinch track head-to-head?
FanDuel, DraftKings, Pinnacle, and BetMGM. Each bookmaker is scored on the games where its archived lines overlap Clinch forecasts and final outcomes.
Is Clinch trying to predict betting outcomes?
No. Clinch is a playoff-odds tracker for fans — not a betting app. We don't accept bets, take referral fees, or recommend wagers. We use sportsbook data as an accountability benchmark — a publicly-observable prediction we can score our model against.
Where can I see the full calibration data?
Aggregate Brier scorecards, paired-season validation, and historical season summaries live on the model dashboard. It updates as games complete.
Which sports does Clinch compare?
Clinch runs NHL, NBA, and MLB models. A head-to-head table appears for each sport in its regular season or playoffs once matched forecasts, bookmaker lines, and final outcomes are available. Historical results remain on the model dashboard.
Free — no credit card
Get Clinch on your phone.
Live NHL, NBA, and MLB playoff odds with a nightly rooting guide and push alerts the moment your team's picture changes. Follow one team in every sport for free.
