At this point in the MLB playoff odds race, a few good weeks can still redraw the board. Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Los Angeles are holding first-rate position; Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia are spending August trying to stop the slide before it turns fatal.
MLB: the teams moving up and down
Tampa Bay Rays sit at 74-46 with a playoff chance, 97 projected wins and a title shot. They are the cleanest bet in the field right now: the record matches the model, and the model has nowhere to hide.
Milwaukee Brewers are right there too at 74-47, also for October with 97 projected wins and a championship chance. Los Angeles Dodgers are on the same level of certainty at 73-48, , 97 projected wins and the league’s best title number at .
The next tier is where the movement gets interesting. New York Yankees are 68-52 and still at , but their 92 projected wins leave less room for error than the teams above them. Atlanta Braves are 73-48 with the same playoff odds and 96 projected wins, which keeps them in the rise column even if they are no longer the league’s hottest number.
On the way down, Chicago Cubs at 71-50 are still safe at , but the drop from the top three shows how quickly separation has formed. The real pressure is on Chicago White Sox at 62-57 and , Houston Astros at 62-60 and , and San Diego Padres at 65-57 and .
San Diego is the clearest falling contender: 65-57 is a winning record, but and just championship odds say the model sees a team hanging on, not surging. Houston’s 83 projected wins and title chance are worse, because the gap between reputation and projection is now real.
One team to watch next week
Philadelphia Phillies are the swing team. At 64-58, they are only to make the postseason, but the gap to Arizona’s at 64-58 is razor-thin, and one strong week could push Philadelphia into the next tier or bury them further in the cluttered middle.