New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders Set Up the Night’s Biggest NHL Playoff Swing

Tonight’s biggest playoff swing sits on Long Island

The night’s most consequential game is New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, with an expected impact of 12.5 points. New Jersey’s 40–50% win probability comes with a playoff swing from 40–50% to 50–60%, which is the cleanest single-game leverage on the board.

NHL

It is still early in the season, with only 1 of 84 games played, so these numbers are volatile. But volatility cuts both ways: one result can move a team’s playoff case more than a week of ordinary play.

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders

The Devils are the favorite at 40–50%, but not by much, and that matters because the gap between a win and a loss is 12.5 points of playoff impact. New Jersey sits at 1-0, while the Islanders are 0-1; a Devils loss drops them from 50–60% to 40–50%, while an Islanders win pushes them from 40–50% to 50–60%.

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators bring a 40–50% win probability into a game with 11.0 points of expected impact. Ottawa is 0-0 and Toronto is 1-1; the playoff swing runs from 40–50% to 50–60%, which keeps this one firmly in the night’s top tier.

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

Dallas Stars are the stronger side at 50–60%, and the market still sees a sizable 10.7-point impact. Dallas is 0-1 and Nashville is 0-1; a Stars win moves them from 50–60% to 60–70%, while a loss cuts that edge back to 50–60% from the higher end of the swing.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals

Tampa Bay Lightning enter at 50–60% against a Washington Capitals team that is 1-0. The swing is 50–60% to 60–70%, and the 10.5-point impact makes this one matter beyond the standings table.

NBA

The NBA is still in preseason, so there are no playoff races to read from tonight’s slate. The games are on the schedule, but there is no postseason leverage to measure yet.

MLB

The postseason is already underway, and every listed matchup is at 90–100% to 90–100% for playoff probability because the field is set. That means the games matter for series advancement, not for changing who gets in.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves

Los Angeles Dodgers carry a 50–60% win probability into the matchup with Atlanta Braves. The playoff swing is neutral at 90–100% to 90–100%, so this is about bracket position and survival, not entry odds.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers are the biggest favorite on the MLB slate at 50–60%. The numbers say nothing changes in playoff odds because both teams are already locked at 90–100%, but Milwaukee’s 103-59 record against San Diego’s 91-71 shows the gap in regular-season strength behind this series.

Neutral Fan Rooting Guide

If you are watching for the widest playoff picture, root for the result that creates the largest change at the top of the NHL board. New Jersey and New York matter most because their game carries the night’s highest expected impact at 12.5 points, while Ottawa-Toronto sits right behind at 11.0.

For viewers who want the most meaningful single outcome, a Devils win is the sharpest swing on the slate. It moves New Jersey from 40–50% to 50–60% and turns one game into a real postseason lever.

Biggest Swing Game

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders is the game to watch. The 12.5-point expected impact and 40–50% to 50–60% playoff swing make it the clearest pivot point on tonight’s board.