NHL playoff odds still have the Winnipeg Jets in the bracket more often than not, but is not a comfortable place to live two games into a season. Winnipeg is 1-1 through 2 GP, with 96 projected points and a chance to win the division, which points to a team that is still tracking as a postseason contender without much separation from the crowd.
That is the reality of early-season projections: one loss can move a team from credible to vulnerable, and one win can pull it back. For Winnipeg fans, means the model sees a playoff team slightly more often than not, but not one with a sturdy cushion. The Jets are sitting behind several comparators with similar point totals, and that is what makes the opening week matter even in a 84-game season.
Winnipeg’s place in the crowded middle
Look just above Winnipeg and the picture gets tight fast. Vegas (, 99 proj pts) and Carolina (, 100 proj pts) are tracking a little stronger, while Pittsburgh (, 98 proj pts) and Tampa Bay (, 98 proj pts) are also sitting ahead of the Jets in playoff probability.
Below Winnipeg, the separation is minimal. Dallas is with 95 projected points, Utah is with 95 projected points, Washington is with 96 projected points, New York is with 96 projected points, and Florida is with 96 projected points. Winnipeg’s is better than all of them, but only by a sliver.
What has to go right
The simplest path is for Winnipeg to convert its 96-point projection into something closer to the upper tier in this cluster. At 1-1, the Jets do not need a sprint; they need steadiness, because the teams around them are also projected to finish in the mid-to-high 90s.
That means banking enough points early to avoid living in that to band all year. If Winnipeg can stay ahead of Dallas (95 projected points) and the teams clustered around 96, the playoff probability should rise with it.
What can push them out
The danger is not a collapse; it is a slow slide through a crowded race. Winnipeg’s division win chance shows the path to a guaranteed postseason position is narrow, so the Jets are more likely to be judged against the broader field than by divisional control.
If they keep tracking at the same level as Dallas, Utah, Washington, New York, and Florida, then the model will keep treating them as a borderline team. In an early season that is only 2 of 84 games played, that kind of sameness does not build security.
Winnipeg Jets verdict
The Winnipeg Jets are a playoff lean, not a lock. At , the model gives them a real edge over the teams immediately around them, but not enough to call this a safe bet.
Verdict: Winnipeg should make the playoffs, but only as a modest favorite. The projection says yes, yet the narrow gap over Dallas and the rest of the 95-to-96-point cluster leaves plenty of room for the season to swing the other way.