The Los Angeles Kings are fading early, and the numbers say the hole is already real: 0-4, 34.9% to make the playoffs, and a projected 88 points. In an early-season NHL playoff race, that is not a death sentence, but it does mean the Kings are spending October trying to stop the slide rather than building separation.
Los Angeles is already behind the cluster around 88 to 91 points
In the current race, the Kings are sitting right in the same band as several teams they need to outlast. Nashville (2-3, 40–50%) and St. Louis (2-3, 40–50%) are projected at 91 points, New Jersey (2-2, 30–40%) and the New York Islanders (2-3, 30–40%) at 90, and Columbus (2-2, 30–40%) at 89. Los Angeles is at 88, alongside Montréal (2-3, 30–40%) and Buffalo (2-3, 30–40%).
That spread is small, but the Kings have no cushion. One more bad week and they are chasing the teams projected a point or two ahead of them; a decent stretch puts them back into the same conversation. Early in a 84-game season, those differences are less about destiny than about whether a team can keep pace long enough to let the projection hold.
What 34.9% means for Kings fans
A 34.9% playoff probability is not hopeless, but it is not a comfortable place to live either. In plain terms, the Kings are closer to the group fighting for one of the final spots than to the teams that can bank on playing into spring, and their start has made every future result count a little more.
The division picture is even harsher. Los Angeles has just a 2.9% chance to win the division, so the realistic goal is not catching the top of the Pacific race. It is staying within the broad wild-card pack long enough to let the season normalize.
What has to change for Los Angeles to climb back in
The Kings do not need a miracle; they need competence over a long enough stretch to get back to projected expectation. At 88 projected points, the model still sees a team that can finish near the middle of the postseason line, but 0-4 means they are already behind the pace that would support that number.
That makes the next month simple. Win enough against the teams clustered around 88 to 91 projected points, avoid bleeding ground to clubs like Detroit (1-4, 20–30%, 86 points), San Jose (3-2, 20–30%, 83 points), and Vancouver (2-4, 10–20%, 82 points), and the Kings can keep their playoff case alive. Drop too many of those head-to-head points, and the percentage will keep falling.
Los Angeles Kings playoff verdict
The verdict is cautious but not fatal: the Los Angeles Kings are still in the playoff race, but they are trending the wrong way after an 0-4 start. With a 34.9% playoff probability and a projection of 88 points, they look more like a fringe team than a secure qualifier right now.
For Kings fans searching LAK playoff odds, the clean read is this: they can still make it, but they need a fast correction to avoid letting the early gap become the season’s defining number.