Seven teams have already locked playoff spots: COL (100.0%), 121 proj pts; DAL (100.0%), 109 proj pts; CAR (100.0%), 110 proj pts; BUF (100.0%), 108 proj pts; TBL (100.0%), 108 proj pts; MIN (100.0%), 105 proj pts; and ANA (100.0%), 98 proj pts. No team among the top 12 is eliminated.
Eastern Conference
The Eastern race is compact at the back end: Carolina, Buffalo and Tampa Bay are settled into the field, leaving room for a two-team scramble for seeding and home-ice advantages.
- MTL (95.4%), 102 proj pts — Montreal is the safest of the non-clinched East teams, projected to finish with 102 points and holding the best cushion to push for higher seeding.
- PIT (87.6%), 100 proj pts — Pittsburgh projects to 100 points and is the clear under-pressure club in the East; a short slide over the next week could make them dependent on tiebreakers.
Bottom line in the East: the field above the two deep-pocket qualifiers is essentially set, but Pittsburgh’s margin is thin enough that a losing week would force an ugly sprint to the finish.
Western Conference
Colorado and Dallas are through; Minnesota and Anaheim have also clinched, but the West’s final slots are far less tidy than the top.
- EDM (93.0%), 92 proj pts — Edmonton projects to 92 points and sits close to the cut line; they need steadiness to avoid a late reshuffle.
- UTA (90.5%), 91 proj pts — Utah projects to 91 points and is functionally within reach of both Edmonton and Vegas; a couple of swing games could flip positioning.
- VGK (73.7%), 90 proj pts — Vegas is the most precarious in the West group, with the lowest probability among the top 12 and a 90-point projection that leaves little margin for error.
Those three — EDM, UTA and VGK — form a tight cluster in projected points and probabilities. With Colorado at the top of the projections, the fight for the remaining Western seeds will hinge on head-to-head results and streaks over the next two weeks.
Games to Watch
- PIT at MTL — Two Eastern contenders in a direct line for seeding movement; a Pittsburgh road loss makes their climb steeper.
- VGK at EDM — A head-to-head punch for the Western bubble where the winner picks up direct leverage in the tight 90–92 projection band.
- DAL at COL — Clinched teams still playing for seeding; outcomes here shape the final bracket balance and resting decisions for both clubs.