The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently in the 0–10% band to win the Atlantic Division during the 2026-27 NHL season. Get the exact live division probability and full race context in Clinch.
See the exact number30,000 simulations after every final score; odds typically update within 5–10 minutes
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-8-2 (18 pts) through 18 games this season. They sit 7th in the Atlantic Division, 7 points back of the leader. Most recently, they lost to the Montréal Canadiens 4-2 at home on Nov 7. The Buffalo Sabres (8-5-3) and Detroit Red Wings (7-8-3) are the closest Atlantic Division comparisons. Losers of two straight with a 5-5-0 last 10. Next three: home against the New Jersey Devils Nov 8, home against the Colorado Avalanche Nov 10, and home against the Minnesota Wild Nov 12. Sergei Bobrovsky leads the crease with 12 starts, the team owns a .894 save percentage, and their team goals-against average is 3.11. Clinch models every remaining Atlantic Division game to publish the Maple Leafs live division-win probability.
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The closest current divisional comparisons for Maple Leafs:
Every division competitor, ordered by its chance to finish first.
Division probability comes directly from the same 30,000-season simulation as the headline number. Projected totals are model averages, not guarantees.