The Tampa Bay Lightning are currently in the 40–50% band to win the Atlantic Division during the 2026-27 NHL season. Get the exact live division probability and full race context in Clinch.
See the exact number30,000 simulations after every final score; odds typically update within 5–10 minutes
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The Tampa Bay Lightning are 11-3-2 (24 pts) through 16 games this season. They sit 3rd in the Atlantic Division, 1 point back of the leader. Most recently, they beat the Minnesota Wild 4-3 on the road on Nov 7. The Montréal Canadiens (11-3-3) and Ottawa Senators (11-6-1) are the closest Atlantic Division comparisons. Winners of three straight with a 7-1-2 last 10. Next three: at the Winnipeg Jets Nov 8, at the Buffalo Sabres Nov 11, and at the Columbus Blue Jackets Nov 12. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the crease with 12 starts, the team owns a .885 save percentage, and their team goals-against average is 2.81. Clinch models every remaining Atlantic Division game to publish the Lightning live division-win probability.
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The closest current divisional comparisons for Lightning:
Every division competitor, ordered by its chance to finish first.
Division probability comes directly from the same 30,000-season simulation as the headline number. Projected totals are model averages, not guarantees.