Ottawa's 7-4 drubbing of San Jose on March 15 was the weekend's biggest swing for the bubble: OTT (55.9%) now stands clearly ahead of SJS (54.0%) and projects 96 points to San Jose's 89. That one result reshapes who controls the final playoff spot.
Recap and immediate impact
- OTT (55.9%) 7, SJS (54.0%) 4 — A lopsided, high-end scoring night for Ottawa that doesn't just win a game; it widens a thin margin between two direct competitors. Ottawa's 96 projected points contrast with San Jose's 89 and signal the Senators are trending toward the tiebreakers and schedule leverage that matter late.
- SEA (43.9%) 5, VAN (0.0%) 2 — Seattle opened the night with a decisive win over a team already eliminated from contention. That result keeps Seattle within striking distance of the bubble and provides momentum; Vancouver remains out of the picture.
- SEA (43.9%) 6, FLA (1.0%) 2 — Seattle followed with another dominant outing. Two multi-goal wins in one night (for purposes of this dataset) reinforce SEA's climb to 43.9% and underscore how quickly their path can tighten against low-probability clubs like Florida.
- ANA (96.1%) 4, MTL (80.9%) 3 — Anaheim held serve in a one-goal game and maintains a near-certain ticket to the playoffs. Montreal stays comfortably inside the hunt at 80.9%, but a loss like this narrows the margin for error in Atlantic race decisions down the stretch.
- EDM (75.5%) 3, NSH (13.1%) 1 — Edmonton's win protects a sizable advantage as they chase a top seed; Nashville's longshot 13.1% outlook takes another hit in a game that had playoff-seed implications only for the Oilers.
- TOR (0.1%) 4, MIN (100.0%) 2 — Toronto grabbed a meaningful upset on the scoreboard but not in the standings: Minnesota remains locked in at 100.0%. For Toronto, the result is a morale boost; for Minnesota, a rare stumble that won't affect their clinch probability.
- VGK (93.8%) 4, CHI (0.1%) 0 — Vegas delivered a shutout that preserves momentum toward a top spot. Chicago remains a longshot at 0.1%, and this result reinforces the gap between contender and cellar-dweller.
- WPG (5.9%) 3, STL (0.7%) 2 — A tight win for Winnipeg keeps their faint 5.9% alive; St. Louis, at 0.7%, is inching toward elimination scenarios after another loss in a head-to-head against a fellow longshot.
Standouts and takeaways
- Ottawa's blowout over San Jose is the single most consequential result for the bubble: OTT (55.9%) vs SJS (54.0%) and 96 proj pts vs 89 proj pts.
- Seattle's two high-scoring wins (both 5-2 and 6-2) are the noise you want from a club at 43.9% — they're building the kind of momentum that flips simulated outcomes late.
- Anaheim (96.1%) and Vegas (93.8%) continue to separate themselves from the pack; Minnesota's perfect 100.0% is unshaken despite their loss.
What's next
- Ottawa vs San Jose rematch (or similar bubble head-to-heads) carries enormous weight; those games interchange simulated outcomes between teams at 55.9% and 54.0%.
- Seattle needs more steady results against low-probability teams to convert their 43.9% into something firmer — any stretch against Florida and Vancouver is a chance to climb.
- Anaheim and Montreal games will matter for seeding decisions even with ANA (96.1%) largely safe and MTL (80.9%) comfortably inside.
- Watch Edmonton and Vegas to see if they lock up positions or keep pushing for better draws — both results change the lower-tier scramble.