At 38-37 through 75 games, the Columbus Blue Jackets are not out of this. But with a 42.6% playoff probability and a 95-point projection, they are also not in control of anything with one week left in the season.
The race around Columbus
This is the kind of late-season position that exposes every missed point. Columbus sits just behind New York Islanders (43.4%, 95 proj pts) and just ahead of Ottawa Senators (42.1%, 95 proj pts), with Detroit Red Wings still hanging around at 32.2% and 95 projected points.
The pattern is obvious: Columbus is packed into the same middle band as several other fringe teams. The Blue Jackets, Islanders, Senators, Red Wings, and Philadelphia Flyers (31.2%, 95 proj pts) are all fighting for the same narrow opening, while the gap to true safety has already widened behind Pittsburgh Penguins (93.9%, 100 proj pts) and Boston Bruins (94.8%, 101 proj pts).
What the 42.6% says
For Columbus, 42.6% is not a soft "in the hunt" number. It says they are roughly a coin flip, but the coin is weighted against them because they need both points and help, and they have no division path at 0.0%.
The 95-point projection is the important number. It tells you the market sees Columbus landing in the same neighborhood as several other bubble teams, which means head-to-head tiebreakers, regulation wins, and one-off results are likely to decide everything.
What has to go right
- Columbus has to finish cleaner than the other 95-point teams around them.
- They need one of New York, Ottawa, Detroit, or Philadelphia to stumble in the final stretch.
- They cannot afford to leave points on the table against lower-end teams at this stage of the season, with 90% of the schedule already complete.
What can break the season
- A single bad week can sink a team sitting this close to the cut line.
- Because the cluster is so tight, Columbus does not have much margin if the Islanders hold at 43.4% or Ottawa nudges past 42.1%.
- With division odds already at 0.0%, the path is entirely through the wild-card race, which is less forgiving and more crowded.
The Bottom Line
Columbus is still very much alive, but the numbers do not point to a comfortable finish. A 42.6% playoff probability says the Blue Jackets are a real candidate to sneak in, yet the 95-point projection and the traffic jam around them suggest they are more likely to end up on the wrong side of the line than on the right one.
My read: slightly more likely to miss than make it. The Blue Jackets have a shot, but they need to win the sprint while several teams around them blink first.