The NHL playoff odds board is mostly settled now that the postseason is underway, but the hierarchy is still worth reading: Colorado Avalanche sit at 100.0% playoff odds, 55-27, with a league-best 125 projected points and a 20.2% title chance. Nobody is chasing them for a berth anymore; the only real question is whether anyone can match that top-end ceiling.
Western Conference
The West’s top tier is defined by certainty and separation. Colorado (55-27, 100.0%) is joined by Dallas Stars at 50-32, 112 projected points, and 7.9% championship odds, while Minnesota Wild are 46-36 with 107 projected points and a 5.2% title chance.
The more interesting Western story is the cluster behind them. Vegas Golden Knights finished 39-43 but still show 97 projected points and 4.7% championship odds, the kind of profile that says the model still sees a path even after an uneven year. In the same range, St. Louis Blues are out at 37-45, and Los Angeles Kings are 35-47, which leaves no ambiguity about who has the better postseason setup.
The West also has its clean eliminations. Chicago (29-53) and Vancouver (25-57) are done, and the gap between the middle of the bracket and the bottom has become too wide to ignore. Once you’re sitting under 40 wins in this field, the numbers have already told the story.
Eastern Conference
The East is tighter at the top, but the real edge belongs to the teams that survived the grind. Carolina Hurricanes are 53-29 with 113 projected points and a 12.9% championship chance, while Tampa Bay Lightning are 50-32, 106 projected points, and 9.9% to win it all.
The bubble pressure is concentrated on the middle class. Boston Bruins are 45-37 with 100 projected points and a 2.3% championship chance, Ottawa Senators are 44-38 with 99 projected points and 6.6%, and Pittsburgh Penguins are 41-41 with 98 projected points and 5.5%. Those are postseason teams by the board, but they’re not built equally: Ottawa’s projection is higher than Boston’s despite the worse record, and Pittsburgh’s even record leaves no margin for error.
Montreal Canadiens also deserve mention at 48-34 with 109 projected points and a 4.4% championship shot. That puts them behind the very top contenders, but well ahead of the teams trying to drag themselves into relevance.
Games to Watch
- Boston vs. Ottawa — 45-37 against 44-38 is the sharpest separation inside the Eastern middle class.
- Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia — the Penguins (41-41) and Flyers (43-39) are clustered in the same playoff tier, with Pittsburgh carrying the better title number.
- Vegas vs. St. Louis — Vegas (39-43) still has model life, while St. Louis (37-45) has already slipped further from the pack.
