The postseason is underway, and the numbers are already ruthless. NHL playoff odds say Colorado Avalanche (55-27, 100.0%) have the best regular-season resume in the field, but the sharpest championship paths belong to Carolina Hurricanes (53-29, 35.6%) and Vegas Golden Knights (39-43, 38.3%), two teams whose title odds outpace the teams above them in the standings.
Eastern Conference: Tampa Bay’s path is crowded, Boston and Ottawa are hanging on
The East is locked on the surface, but the hierarchy is not. Tampa Bay Lightning (50-32, 106 proj pts) and Montreal Canadiens (48-34, 111 proj pts, 19.0%) are both in, yet Montreal’s championship number puts them in a different conversation than their point total suggests.
Behind them, the pressure falls on the middle tier. Boston Bruins (45-37, 100 proj pts), Ottawa Senators (44-38, 99 proj pts), Pittsburgh Penguins (41-41, 98 proj pts), and Philadelphia Flyers (43-39, 98 proj pts) are all tracking the same thin margin: one bad week in the postseason, and their season is over.
The real separator is Boston’s 100 projected points versus Ottawa’s 99 and Pittsburgh and Philadelphia at 98 apiece. In a finished season, those one- and two-point gaps are the difference between a clean bracket entry and a first-round mismatch.
Western Conference: Colorado is the favorite, but Dallas and Minnesota are the teams chasing the shortest road
The West starts with a clear top line. Colorado’s 126 projected points and 100.0% playoff mark make them the most complete team in the field, while Dallas Stars (50-32, 112 proj pts) and Minnesota Wild (46-36, 104 proj pts) are the teams trying to translate strong regular seasons into a real run.
Buffalo Sabres (50-32, 109 proj pts) and Tampa Bay sit in a similar middle lane: good enough to be a threat, not dominant enough to relax. That is why the title race still centers on Colorado’s 7.1% and Carolina’s 35.6% on one side, and Vegas’ 38.3% on the other.
Vegas is the odd case that defines this playoff field. A 39-43 team does not usually profile as a championship leader, but the simulation sees a path that the standings alone do not capture.
Games to Watch
- Carolina vs. Boston — one of the clearest East tests for a top seed against a team sitting on 100 projected points.
- Dallas vs. Minnesota — a West checkpoint for a 112-projection contender against a 104-projection survivor.
- Montreal vs. Ottawa — 111 projected points against 99, with seeding leverage and survival pressure in the same series.
