San Jose’s 4-2 win over Boston is the clearest single result here: the Sharks (54.2%) nudged ahead of the Bruins (53.2%) in a swing that reshapes the immediate playoff picture. Every game from March 12–13 carried consequences — from Vegas’ rout of Pittsburgh to Toronto’s shocker in Anaheim.
March 13
- Colorado 5, Seattle 1 — Colorado (100.0%) delivered a dominant win and reinforced an already locked-in position; Seattle (30.2%) fell further into long-odds territory after a heavy defeat.
- Vegas 6, Pittsburgh 2 — Vegas (90.6%) turned in a blowout that underlines their separation from the pack, while Pittsburgh (77.1%) absorbed a damaging loss that makes every upcoming point more urgent for a team not yet secure.
- Vancouver 4, Nashville 3 — Vancouver (0.0%) grabbed a one-goal victory that won’t move their projections, but Nashville (27.0%) dropped a game they could ill afford in a fragile position.
March 12
- Chicago 3, Utah 2 — Chicago (0.4%) edged Utah (89.9%) in a narrow result; Utah’s high probability remains intact but the loss is an unexpected blemish.
- San Jose 4, Boston 2 — San Jose (54.2%) pulled ahead of Boston (53.2%) with a timely bubble win; this single result materially alters who controls the middle of the pack.
- Washington 2, Buffalo 1 — Washington (9.7%) staved off Buffalo (99.4%) in a one-goal upset; Buffalo still sits near certainty but picked up a rare scare.
- Toronto 6, Anaheim 4 — Toronto (0.1%) stunned Anaheim (94.3%) in a high-scoring upset; Anaheim’s projection remains healthy, but the loss chips at their margin for error.
- Tampa Bay 4, Detroit 1 — Tampa Bay (99.7%) recorded a comfortable win while Detroit (64.4%) took a hit that keeps them squarely in a live fight for position.
Top takeaways
- Bubble flip: San Jose (54.2%) over Boston (53.2%) is the clearest playoff-impacting result — the Sharks now control that slot and force Boston to respond immediately.
- Momentum vs. math: Vegas (90.6%) and Tampa Bay (99.7%) reinforced their trajectories; Pittsburgh (77.1%) and Detroit (64.4%) must remain consistent to avoid slipping.
- Cosmetic upsets: Toronto (0.1%) and Washington (9.7%) list improbable wins that matter for confidence but move the needle only marginally for favorites like Anaheim (94.3%) and Buffalo (99.4%).
What’s next
- Watch Boston and San Jose — both teams’ next results will decide who keeps control of the 53–55% window.
- Pittsburgh needs a response to Vegas’ rout; any upcoming games against top-60 schedule opponents will be pressure tests for 77.1% status.
- Detroit must rack up points to hold pace with the locked-in leaders after the loss to Tampa Bay.