The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting in the middle of the MLB playoff odds picture at 24-20, and the read is simple: they are neither safe nor sinking. At 44 games into a 162-game season, their 48.2% playoff probability says they are one strong run away from looking comfortable, and one bad stretch from sliding out of the field.
Where Pittsburgh Stands
This is not a team hanging on by a thread, but it is also not one with real margin. Pittsburgh’s 6.7% division win probability shows the path to the top of the standings is still a long shot, so the focus is clearly on the wild-card chase and the teams clustered around them.
The Pirates’ projected points are undefined, which keeps the spotlight on the raw standings and the simulations. At 24-20, they have built a winning record without building a cushion.
The Teams Right Around Them
The nearest comparables tell the story. St. Louis Cardinals are just ahead at 48.9% playoff odds with an 84-win projection, while Pittsburgh sits at 48.2% and the same 84-win projection. That is effectively a coin flip gap, not a meaningful separation.
Right behind them, Athletics are at 47.9% with an 81-win projection. That makes Pittsburgh’s hold on this tier fragile; the Pirates are barely ahead in probability and only slightly better positioned in the simulations.
Chicago White Sox are the next real chase team at 38.9%, and that gap matters. Pittsburgh is not fighting off a collapse — it is trying to stay above a pack that still has time to close if the Pirates stop converting close games into wins.
What Has to Go Right
Pittsburgh does not need a miracle, but it does need competence to persist. At 24-20, they can afford some regression and still stay relevant, yet the difference between a 48.2% team and a 60% team is usually built on winning the games they are supposed to win.
The good news is that their current position keeps them in the race without requiring a leap over the class of the league. Cleveland Guardians are at 70.2% playoff odds with an 85-win projection, which is the kind of profile Pittsburgh would need to approach to feel stable. The Pirates are not there yet, but they are close enough to keep the pressure on.
What goes wrong is obvious: the 24-20 record starts to look ordinary if the run differential, rotation depth, or late-game results turn. With no division edge and no cushion over STL or ATH, even a brief wobble can flip the race.
The Bottom Line
Pittsburgh is a live team, not a locked-in one. The 48.2% playoff probability says the Pirates are right on the edge, but the balance of the numbers still leaves them slightly outside the safest group in the field.
Verdict: the Pittsburgh Pirates are more likely to stay in the race than fall apart, but not likely enough to be treated as a playoff lock. If they keep winning at this pace, they get there; if they slow down, STL and ATH are ready to pass them.
