How the NHL Playoff Format Works
The NHL sends 16 teams to the Stanley Cup Playoffs — eight from each conference. In each conference, the top three teams from each division (six total) qualify automatically. The remaining two spots go to wild card teams: the two non-division-winner teams with the best records in the conference, regardless of which division they play in.
This format means division races and wild card races operate somewhat independently. A team can be fourth in a strong division and still make the playoffs as a wild card, while a third-place team in a weaker division is guaranteed a spot.
Understanding the Wild Card Race
The wild card race is where the most drama lives. Teams fighting for wild card spots often see their playoff odds swing dramatically from week to week. A three-game winning streak can take a team from 30% to 55% playoff probability, while a losing skid can do the opposite.
What makes it complicated: The wild card race involves teams from both divisions in a conference competing for just two spots. A team's odds depend not just on their own results, but on the results of every other bubble team — sometimes six or seven teams are realistically competing for those final two spots.
Key Factors in the 2025-26 Race
Head-to-Head Matchups
When two teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, their head-to-head record becomes a crucial tiebreaker. Late-season games between bubble teams are essentially playoff games in terms of the impact they have on each team's postseason odds. The simulation accounts for this — when bubble teams play each other, one team's gain is directly the other's loss.
Regulation Wins
The NHL's first tiebreaker is regulation wins (ROW — regulation and overtime wins, was updated to just regulation wins). Teams that win in regulation have a tiebreaker advantage over teams that accumulate points through overtime losses and shootout wins. This is why the points column alone doesn't tell the full story.
Schedule Strength Down the Stretch
Not all remaining schedules are created equal. A team with 10 games left against bottom-feeders has a much better outlook than one facing a gauntlet of contenders. Our simulations account for each team's specific remaining schedule, factoring in the relative strength of every opponent.
What to Watch For
- The Pacific Division — Historically one of the most competitive divisions, the Pacific often features four or five legitimate contenders fighting for three automatic spots.
- Eastern Conference logjam — The Metropolitan and Atlantic divisions can produce wild card races where three or four teams are separated by just a few points entering March.
- Trade deadline impact — Teams that buy at the deadline often get a boost in the simulation's team strength ratings, which can shift their playoff odds. Sellers see the opposite effect.
- Late-season back-to-backs — Compressed schedules in March and April can produce unexpected results, especially for teams with injury concerns or thin depth.
How Clinch Tracks the NHL Playoff Race
Clinch runs 30,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining NHL schedule every day. Each simulation plays out every remaining game, applies the NHL's actual tiebreaker rules, and determines the full 16-team playoff field. The result is a precise probability for each team's postseason chances.
Beyond just playoff odds, Clinch shows you the impact of every game. Before each night's action, you can see exactly how tonight's games could shift your team's playoff probability — turning every regular-season game into must-watch viewing for fans following the race.
Follow the NHL Playoff Race
Get daily updated playoff odds for all 32 NHL teams and see what every game means.