San Jose’s 4-2 win over Boston was the biggest swing on the bubble: the Sharks now sit above the Bruins in the fight for a wild-card berth, and that head-to-head result reshapes the middle of the pack more than any lone blowout or surprise upset from Thursday night.
Game-by-game recap (2026-03-12)
- STL 3, CAR 1 — St. Louis pulled off a low-probability victory against a locked-in Carolina; STL sits at 1.1%100.0%.
- DAL 7, EDM 2 — A demolition. Dallas poured in seven and stays untouchable at 100.0%, while Edmonton’s title hopes take a deflating loss but remain healthy at 72.3%.
- PHI 3, MIN 2 — Philadelphia picked up a key win over a clinched Minnesota; the Flyers keep their push alive at 21.2% as Minnesota sits with certainty at 100.0%.
- NYR 6, WPG 3 — New York scored six despite being out of the picture; the Rangers remain at 0.0% while Winnipeg’s longshot chase still reads 2.9%.
- CHI 3, UTA 2 — Chicago’s upset win gives the Blackhawks a sliver of hope at 0.5%, but Utah’s posture is largely unchanged with a strong standing at 90.9%.
- SJS 4, BOS 2 — San Jose’s victory directly altered the bubble dynamic and delivers a momentum edge the Sharks needed after the win pushed them past Boston in the tight wild-card fight; Boston’s loss makes the race more unsettled.
- WSH 2, BUF 1 — Washington handed Buffalo a rare stumble; the Capitals still face long odds at 9.2% while Buffalo remains essentially certain at 99.9%.
- TOR 6, ANA 4 — Toronto’s offensive surge is notable but cosmetic for the standings: the Maple Leafs cling to a near-impossible 0.1%, and Anaheim still controls its fate at 95.7%.
Key takeaways
San Jose’s win matters most because it was a direct bubble clash — the Sharks now have the clearer path into the playoffs while Boston’s margin for error just evaporated. Dallas’s 7-2 rout is loud but mostly confirms what the numbers already showed: Dallas is locked in.
Smaller dramas matter too. Philadelphia’s 3-2 over Minnesota and Washington’s upset of Buffalo are the kind of single-game swings that can matter late for tiebreakers even if the higher-probability teams still hold the edge in simulations.
What’s next
The focus now turns to head-to-heads and remaining divisional runs: any upcoming San Jose-Boston meetings or games against common opponents will be decisive for the middle-of-the-pack teams. Edmonton and Anaheim, both still with significant probability cushions, will be watching how the Sharks and Bruins finish their runs — those matchups will determine whether the bubble tightens or breaks open.