Columbus Blue Jackets are hanging on, not surging. With a 38-39 record through 77 games, the NHL playoff odds model gives CBJ a 27.5% shot to reach the postseason and a projected finish of 93 points.
Where the Blue Jackets stand
That 27.5% is not a death sentence, but it is a thin path. Columbus is deep into the final week of the season, and every result now carries real weight because there is almost no runway left to recover from a bad night.
The bigger problem is the shape of the race around them. CBJ’s 93-point projection is good enough to stay in the conversation, but not good enough to control it.
The bubble is crowded above and below
Columbus is chasing teams with clearer position and, in several cases, stronger playoff odds. Ottawa Senators sit at 70.7% to make the field with 96 projected points, while Philadelphia Flyers are at 57.3% and 95 projected points. Those are the kind of numbers that give a club breathing room; CBJ do not have that luxury.
Even the teams in Columbus’ immediate neighborhood are tight. Nashville Predators are at 27.7% with 87 projected points, essentially level with CBJ’s 27.5%. New York Islanders are just behind at 26.7% and also projected for 93 points, which means this race may come down to tiebreakers, not just total points.
Detroit Red Wings are lurking at 13.7% despite a 40-37 record and 94 projected points, a reminder that raw record alone does not settle anything. The model is reading the path, not the badge on the standings.
What has to happen for Columbus
For CBJ to get in, they need to finish clean. That means winning the games they are supposed to win and probably stealing at least one result that shifts the race around them. With only five games left, there is no room for the kind of split that leaves a team one point short.
The Blue Jackets also need help from the clubs directly around them. If Nashville or the Islanders get hot, Columbus is likely done. If those teams stall and Ottawa or Philadelphia keep banking points, the gap becomes too much for a 38-39 team to erase.
What can sink them
A single losing streak now has outsized damage. At this stage, the difference between 27.5% and 0% is just a few missed opportunities, and Columbus does not have the points cushion to absorb them.
The most dangerous outcome is finishing in the same band as New York Islander territory but losing on tiebreakers. CBJ’s 93-point projection says they can stay competitive; their record says they are still chasing.
The Bottom Line
Columbus has a real chance, but not a great one. The Blue Jackets are live at 27.5%, yet that number says they are more likely to miss than make it unless they close with almost no mistakes and get enough outside help.
My read: CBJ are a fringe team with an uphill finish, and the most likely outcome is a narrow miss.