Colorado’s position is the clearest story: COL (100.0%) projects 120 points and has the kind of cushion that turns the final stretch into lineup experiments, not panic. Behind them, several clubs have locked in berths while a handful — notably in the West — still live and die by every weekend series.
Eastern Conference
The East is increasingly binary. Three teams have already clinched spots: CAR (100.0%, 110 proj pts), BUF (100.0%, 105 proj pts) and TBL (100.0%, 105 proj pts). Those clubs can start managing minutes for the postseason without jeopardizing seeding.
The bubble here is tight and focused. PIT (87.8%, 99 proj pts) sits closest to safety but can’t take anything for granted; a short skid would quickly compress the race. MTL (80.9%, 100 proj pts) has slightly fewer simulated escapes but a higher projected point total, which tells you Montreal’s path hinges on finishing strong rather than getting hot mid-March.
No teams in our provided sample are eliminated; the East’s volatility now lives with PIT (87.8%) and MTL (80.9%), who control their own margins but not their fates.
Western Conference
The West is bifurcated: elite lock-ins and scrappers. Colorado and Dallas are unsurprising anchors — COL (100.0%, 120 proj pts) and DAL (100.0%, 114 proj pts) — while Minnesota also sits comfortably at 100.0% with 105 proj pts.
Below that plateau, the fight stiffens. Anaheim (96.1%, 95 proj pts) and Vegas (93.8%, 94 proj pts) are near certainty by our simulations but still within reach of variance; a run of bad results would make things interesting. More precarious are Utah (79.6%, 92 proj pts) and Edmonton (75.5%, 91 proj pts), both under 80.0% and clearly in must-win territory for the next handful of games.
Those percentages mean the West’s next week will be defined by whether UTA (79.6%) and EDM (75.5%) can string wins together; failure to do so would hand momentum to the clubs sitting behind them in the projections.
Clinched and Eliminated
- Clinched: COL (100.0%), DAL (100.0%), CAR (100.0%), BUF (100.0%), MIN (100.0%), TBL (100.0%)
- Eliminated: None in the provided dataset
Games to Watch
- PIT (87.8%) vs CAR (100.0%) — Pittsburgh needs statement wins against clinched clubs to protect its projection.
- EDM (75.5%) vs DAL (100.0%) — Edmonton can make ground fast; a win here would meaningfully improve their outlook.
- UTA (79.6%) vs MIN (100.0%) — Utah’s margin is thin; this matchup is a direct stress test against a locked-in club.